Esports
OG aren’t the bookies favourites for TI9, but last year the odds were worse and they overcame them to win TI, so who's to say it won't happen again?
The amazing documentary Against All Odds, charting OG’s incredible victory at TI8, is coming first to Red Bull TV. Find out more here.
Last year OG managed to do what many thought would never happen: win The International after scraping through in the open qualifiers, defeating top invited teams along the way.
It was a truly mammoth run of Dota, with the opening rounds of the qualifiers being best of ones that see you eliminated if you lose, leaving absolutely no room for error. But OG made it through that tough competition, then made it through the closed qualifier, then stacked group stage to secure an upper bracket spot, and then of course destroyed everyone in the upper bracket, before reaching the finals and eventually taking the win. When you put it all back to back like that is really does hammer home how many games of Dota OG had to win to pull off perhaps the biggest shock TI win we have ever seen.
Fortunately their journey at TI9 will not be as difficult as last year. Solid performances across the Dota Pro Circuit events this year, and of course no last minute roster changes, means they managed to receive a direct invitation to the competition, allowing them to skip all of the qualifying stages and just focus on the main event itself. However, it certainly will not be easy for them to win back to back TIs – no player, let alone team, has won TI twice before – and just like last year the odds aren’t exactly in their favour, as there are a lot of stages still to overcome.
The group stage
The first challenge for OG will of course be the group stage. The format for this stage of the competition hasn’t been revealed yet, and neither have the group draws, but chances are the format will be the same, or at the very least quite similar, to the two groups of nine teams format we have seen over the last couple of years. With 18 teams competing, only 16 will make it through to the main event, with the last place team in each group being eliminated early. From there the top four teams in each group will make it to the upper bracket, while the teams in fifth to eighth place in each group will start in the lower bracket.
Providing Valve don’t lose their minds and put all the tournament favorites into one group, it’s probably a safe bet that OG will head into their group as a team many expect to be challenging for the top four. Last year they held fourth place in group A and a similar result this year wouldn’t be a surprise, as OG head into the competition as a team that can beat anyone on their day, but often struggle to consistently beat the very top tier teams
While many fans don’t pay too much attention to the group stage of TI, instead waiting for the main event to get underway, it remains one of the most intense parts of TI. You have to play multiple games every day, and one loss can be the difference between the upper and lower bracket, so every game is vitally important. It would be a massive shock to see OG come last and miss out on the main event, but stranger things have happened at TI so don’t count it out.
The main event
Once OG do make it through the group stage the main event becomes their sole focus, and this is where they really kicked into another gear last year. After just sneaking into the upper bracket from the group stage they took down heavy hitters such as EG and PSG, showing that when you get to the main event of TI all bets are off. This year the quality of the teams at TI seems to be the highest we have ever seen, so you can be sure that the upper bracket will be stacked, but OG seem to thrive when they know they can lose and still be in the competition, trying out riskier strategies which often pay off.
However if they find themselves starting in the lower bracket or even lose the first round of winners and are forced to go on a big losers bracket run, things are not going to be easy. The lower bracket at TI has seen more upsets than any other tournament in Dota history, and it really is something you have to take game by game. One misstep and you are out. However, we have seen OG go on big lower bracket runs before, and TI does have a history of amazing lower bracket comebacks, so even that wouldn’t be the end of the world.
The odds
Of course we can all make our own predictions about what will happen at TI, but outside of our reputations and egos we don’t really have much to lose if we get them massively wrong. So one of the best places to look for hints as to what could happen at TI is those who definitely do have something to lose if they get their predictions wrong, and that’s the bookmakers.
It’s clear that the bookies still fancy OG to do well at TI, and their odds are certainly better than last year where they went in as a massive underdog. But one thing the bookies might not be considering is that no team has ever won TI twice, so if history is anything to go by the chances of OG winning seem unlikely.
However, someone has to break that streak, and OG already destroyed the cycle of alternating winners between China and the West at TI8, so there’s no reason why they can’t do it again and destroy the streak of a new TI winner every year. OG may not be the favourites, but they weren’t last year either, and with the form they have been showing in the run up to TI you would be a fool to count them out. OG could quite easily become the first ever two time TI champions, although it won’t be easy.